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Analytical review of the Civil ALOR “

«Chinese factor” may be slightly cool the U.S. market before the key event of the week – Natalia Yassin, CC ALOR »
Trading on Russia’s market in the first half of the session were unprincipled. After a negative open market has shifted to “green” zone, which is associated with the rebound up after the sales yesterday. A positive factor is the return of the MICEX Index above the level of 1400 points. Unprincipled trading in the first half of the day contributed to the mood of uncertainty in the U.S., where for the last sessions of consolidation observed near the local maximum. Participants domestic sites do not dare to begin to address the technical overbought without external support. In the course of trading in the first half of the day influenced the dynamics of ADR, which was subjected to fire-sale oil and gas sector. Better the market once again traded securities of the banking sector, which grow in anticipation of the announcement of the Bank. In addition, in the first half of the day better than the market, as expected, looked shares of Lukoil, which rebound after the drawdown, during which the paper looked worse than the market was more significant.
The key event of the day was a block of statistics on the economy United States, which was mainly due to the nature of negative growth in the number receiving unemployment benefits is expected to decline, and in spite of a slight excess of the forecast data on the original application. Data on the labor market led to a decrease in the futures on the S & P 500. Data on the trade balance has exceeded expectations: the deficit was not as significant as expected, that supported the U.S. dollar. The reaction of market participants at the statistics ambiguous because of the height of current levels.
Until the end of the auction will determine the mood at the sites in the United States. U.S. index futures traded in the red, that would be played at the opening of the U.S. market. Negative dynamics is due both to technical factors and a possible tightening of monetary policy in China because of published data on industrial and consumer inflation, which exceeded the forecast. It is worth noting that the U.S. market is strategically important levels. The Dow Jones consolidates above the mark of 10 500 points in three consecutive sessions. In my view, market participants will not take action until the announcement of the key statistics of the week – data on retail sales in the United States. To continue growth, launched in early February, need drivers, which are now no. In addition, it is worth noting that before the U.S. session was a pretty unprincipled, that could be repeated today. Catechumen statistics do not contribute to the emergence of powerful “bullish” sentiment – on the contrary, today in U.S. markets is likely to be dominated by a correction. Thus, the drastic change of sentiment before the release tomorrow block statistic data did not expect.
In my opinion, to publish interesting paper reporting the banking sector in the first place – shares of Sberbank. However, to open long positions at current levels is not necessary – likely correction moods, but the drivers of growth for the penetration of strong opposition in the form of psychological mark of 90 rub. (which could be moved to a new trading price range and open up the potential for further growth), no.
most interest to speculative buying shares of LUKOIL, which is closer to the finish trades lost the current rise. Paper, bargaining worse than the market over the previous two sessions, the newly formed capacity for technical rebound. The immediate goal is the psychological level of 1600 rubles.
Now visible point of purchase to receive dividends. In particular, demand action “North-West Telecom. In my opinion, if the world markets will be established corrective mood, it can be a powerful driver of growth for the securities, which enjoy a traditional demand for dividends.